“Different Phase” - will Tony Blair commit the ultimate crime against Iran?
By Alasdair Biggs
Could it really be true, is this vile little effluence of a Prime Minister really thinking of allowing, and indeed compelling, British troops to be directly involved in any military action against Iran?
The recent capture by Iran of 15 British marines and sailors is the latest and hottest stage of the cold war currently being played out in the Persian Gulf. Two carrier groups are already in range of Iran, and several more are reputed to be in position near theatre in the Western Pacific and Mediterranean, being readied to enter the stage if called upon by the crazed neocons. France seemingly has also decided to do its bit for Western imperialist posturing by sending the Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier, Europe’s largest, into a near-theatre position in the Indian Ocean.
This seemingly insignificant little spat over the whereabouts of the British marines at the time of capture could easily be an engineered trigger to a steep worsening of the crisis, which could turn the war games and military exercises being played out in the Gulf into a large scale military strike.
How many people really believe that these British men and a woman where nowhere near Iranian territorial waters as has been claimed so vehemently by Blair and foreign secretary Margaret Beckett? Despite their claims of “no justification for their seizure” from Blair, it does appear more slightly more probable that the truthful assertions come from the Iranian side, who say that those seized had illegally entered or strayed into Iranian territorial waters.
Could this indeed be the start of a trigger or series of triggers and excuses which lead to a military attack in Iran? Why is Tony Blair talking of a different phase” or more aggressive diplomacy against Iran if the men and 1 woman are not released in a few days? Afterall, these soldiers will not be in any danger, unless of course perhaps if Iran is attacked. There is no precedent for Iran holding uniformed military personnel and mistreating them. Surely the worst outcome from such a seemingly innocuous occurrence would be their release secured in, at most, a few months time perhaps as part of a prisoner exchange?
At least we can be grateful that the incident did not involve US sailors and marines, as the shooting war would have started by now had US service personnel been surrounded by Republican Guard naval fast boats, as indeed was clarified for us in a report by the Independent yesterday -
“US troops would have fought Iranian captors”
A US naval officer complained to the Independent that -
“They [the British] had every right in my mind and every justification to defend themselves rather than allow themselves to be taken. Our reaction was, 'Why didn't your guys defend themselves?'"
Why indeed, why indeed, doubtlessly lamented the officer to himself, straining at the leash to unload death and hell upon he people of Iran for being somehow different from the Decider and his ilk. Perhaps the event was a lucky escape from an instant military bombardment unleashed by the US once it sailors had duly lost the firefight against far better equipped Iranian fast patrol boats. However, given recent developments such a rosy scenario seems unlikely just yet
Could the crisis lead to a downward spiral of ever worsening incidents?
Sadly, the stage appears set for escalation. The British Foreign Secretary has cut short a trip to Turkey to “manage the crisis with Iran” and Tony Blair is referring to “a different phase” of the crisis if the British sailors are returned within a few days at the most. The first meeting of the Cobra committee, used in the event of a national crisis, has already been held.
US officials have said that whilst it is a British matter they hoped it would be dealt with firmly by their major ally in the “coalition of the willing”. Whilst it is difficult to imagine how the shooting could start as a direct response to this incident, it is not at all difficult to see how this could be the first in a series of confrontations and escalations that do eventually lead to a shooting war. For instance, will the out-gunned British patrol rhibs (rigid hull inflatable boats) be replaced by something more sturdy and better armed? The next time they stray into (or not) Iranian waters will they have the weaponry and orders to respond in force? Will a large British ship be used to fire upon Iran fast patrol boats if they threaten smaller British patrol boats when they inevitably come near the Iranian waters of the Shatt al-Arab waterway. The Iraqi section of the waterway is as little as 200 metres wide in some places so presumably fast boats can stray outside of this territory within a few seconds of deciding to do so (or simply by getting confused).
Will the UK and US patrol even more aggressively along the edge of Iranian waters (and indeed into - or not) as a result of the latest incident, further heightening the chance of each sides patrol boats opening fire on each other? This would all be mere speculation with little meaning were it not for all the deployments of extra forces to the Gulf and nearby, such as the scores of attack planes recently deployed in Turkey, and scores more in Romania and Bulgaria, the arrival of oil tankers in Romania and Diego Garcia to enable refuelling flights to operate in support of long range bombers and ground attack aircraft. Rumours abound of planes arriving at various other locations in the Gulf and Stratcom having created a headquarters in one of the Persian Gulf’s principalities.
Would such a spark, a doubtless engineered incident, lead to the implementation and execution of operation TIRANNT and CONPLAN 8022, whereby 10,000 targetscould be hit in a single raid? Surely this relatively little incident could not escalate to such a level.
Yet for sometime informed observers such as Scott Ritter have said that an attack has been planned and in 2005 Ritter even gave a date of April 2007 for an attack. Were the Iranians to keep these detained British marines and sailors for more than a few days, will US and British forces antagonise the situation further by taking on an even more aggressive and invasive posture in the hope that the Iranians do something reckless so the shooting can start in earnest?
April 6th at 4am?
These questions cannot be immediately answered in any verifiable manner, however, another troubling development came to light yesterday. Retired Russian general Ivachov has confirmed other reports that Russian military chiefs have concluded that a strike appears likely to be conducted in less than 10 days time, with a possible start time of 4am on April 6th, and an initial strike duration of 12 hours. The general even called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting to discuss measures to halt any planned aggression by the US.
Again we cannot know for certain what is being planned and if the assessment by the Russians is accurate, yet there have been threats of action for some time and the hardware is now in place. Perhaps we are in the late stages of the stand off which is about to get disastrously hot with all the feared spill-over effects and anticipated escalations leading to full scale war or a nuclear first strike.
What is truly galling from a British perspective is that it appears possible that Blair is allowing Britain to be drawn into any upcoming confrontation by creating an incident which will clearly escalate further should Iran refuse to release the captured sailors. Across all the major UK news media today has been running a story about the family of the female sailor amongst those captured, specifically that they are extremely distressed about the capture of their daughter , Leading Seaman Faye Turney. Could the government be softening up the British public for an escalation of the crisis?
If the current incident or crisis is indeed the start of a series of escalations, and if Tony Blair is attempting to get Britain involved militarily in the catastrophe sure to arise once air strikes commence on Iran and its people, if indeed true then Tony Blair will go down as the greatest ever British traitor. There is no plausible excuse this time for getting the UK involved in such a blatantly criminal act as operation TIRRANT (or English Cock as suggested by General Ivachov), being the execution phase of CONPLAN 8022. Should he order British troops to take part in what is sure to be the worst catastrophe in post Cuba missile crisis world history, then Blair will have emphatically secured his dastardly place in history.
If such a scenario does play out then shame on you Tony Blair, shame on you! Your crimes will never be forgotten.
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